Real Zaragoza face an almost inevitable fate of relegation to Primera RFEF, with the team showing no signs of escaping that grim outcome.
The side has completely collapsed, squandering numerous opportunities and suffering three consecutive defeats. With seven games without a win and just two points from a possible 21, the table looks bleak: four points away from safety with only nine left to play for. While mathematics offers a slim chance, there is only one historical precedent to clutch onto.
That precedent is Eibar in the 1998-99 season. The Basque outfit managed to overturn a six-point deficit in the final nine points available, eventually securing survival by winning their last five matches in Segunda División. Eibar closed a gap of 11 points from matchday 37 to finish safe, with wins over Barcelona B, Albacete, and Toledo. Mallorca B ended up relegated that year.
However, Eibar’s miracle came from a side in much better form and confidence heading into the final three games, something Real Zaragoza under David Navarro lack entirely. The current squad is a shadow of itself, gifting goals, lacking effectiveness in attack, and fragile both physically and mentally.
To emulate Eibar’s feat, Zaragoza need far more than a miracle. Indeed, relegation to the third tier of Spanish football—what was Segunda B and is now Primera RFEF—seems the most likely conclusion.
In 28 seasons under the current system (three points per win, 22 teams, four relegation spots), only 16 times—less than 15% of 112 instances—have teams in the relegation zone after matchday 39 escaped by the season’s end. But among those, only Eibar overcame a deficit of four points or more (six points). The rest had fewer points to make up.
For example, in 2013-14, Girona closed a two-point gap in the final three games. Other teams like Compostela (1999-00), Elche (2000-01), Poli Ejido (2001-02), Alavés (2007-08 and 2013-14), Girona (2011-12), Nàstic (2016-17), Córdoba (2017-18), and Lugo (2019-20 and 2020-21) cut just one point. Meanwhile, teams like Eibar (2002-03), Poli Ejido (2003-04), Xerez (2007-08), and UD Salamanca (2008-09) were level on points with safety after matchday 39 and escaped.
Lugo, in 2020-21, was the last team to climb out of the relegation zone in the final three matchdays. Since then, all 16 teams that were in the relegation places after matchday 39 have gone down, from the 2021-22 season onward. No team has managed a last-ditch escape in the last four campaigns.
Zaragoza cling to a numerical possibility, but they need a huge mental turnaround—something far from reality for a side broken in every aspect. The miracle they seek demands much more than hope.
